Subway, Domino’s and McDonald’s Keep Losing Spending After Households Stop GLP-1 Drugs, Numerator Finds
Numerator data shows households that stopped GLP-1 drugs cut fast-food spending more than active users did, while some big grocers did better with former users.
Stopping a GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) drug does not appear to bring fast-food spending back. Numerator data shows households with former users cut limited-service restaurant spending more than households with active users did. Some big grocers did better with the same shoppers.
TLDR
- Numerator estimates 12.3 million U.S. households include a lapsed GLP-1 user, accounting for more than $166 billion a year in grocery and fast-food spending.
- Limited-service restaurant spending per household fell 4.6% among lapsed users, compared with 3.4% among active users.
- Grocery spending fell 1.8% among lapsed users, compared with 2.6% among active users.
- Food makers including Campbell’s, Hormel and Utz kept losing spending from these households.
Fast Food
The figures cover the 12 months ended Sept. 30, compared with a year earlier, and were reported by Food Business News. Spending per household among lapsed users fell 15% at Subway, 6.8% at Arby’s, 4.5% at Domino’s and 1.8% at McDonald’s.
Numerator said all four chains saw steeper declines among lapsed households than among active-user households.
Grocery
Large retailers fared better. Spending per lapsed household rose 3.2% at Costco, while active-user households fell 1.6%. Target rose 0.3% against a 3.9% drop among active users. Albertsons fell 0.4% against a 6% drop.
Walmart spending among lapsed households rose 1.3%, Numerator said.
Manufacturers
That improvement did not reach every food maker. Spending among lapsed households fell 6.6% for Campbell’s, 4.8% for Hormel and 4.3% for Utz, according to Numerator. The firm said a stronger grocery trend among lapsed users does not necessarily mean recovery for every manufacturer.
How the Data Was Built
Numerator’s quarterly GLP-1 tracker had more than 95,000 responses in its latest survey wave. It pairs those answers with purchase data from a panel covering shoppers at more than 50,000 retailers. Numerator is a commercial research firm, and this story relies on its figures as reported by Food Business News. The data shows spending patterns, not why households changed them.
Why It Matters
Numerator’s figures size a second group alongside active users: 12.3 million households where someone has stopped. Over the 12 months, their spending fell at limited-service restaurants and at food makers including Campbell’s, Hormel and Utz, and rose at Costco, Target and Walmart.
Sources: Food Business News, reporting Numerator data.